The Israeli Public Emergency Council for the Covid19 Crisis

What are the risks (for me) if someone is not vaccinated?

Epidemiological risk analysis for the assessment of the need for coercion or incentives for vaccination


Medical treatment requires the free consent of the patient. Nevertheless, the state has the right to suspend one’s right to autonomyover one’s own body in extremely rare cases when an individual might present a risk to the surroundings— in which case, the right of a society to protect itself outweighs the right of an individual over his or her body. The question then becomes: Is it fair to use force, sanctions and/or incentives to encourage vaccination? In order to evaluate this question, we must analyze the real risks to a vaccinated person from an environment in which people have not been vaccinated. In this way. we can be informed if there is a significant risk that warrants coercion or sanctions in order to protect the health of the public at large.


Obviously, it is not inherently dangerous to be near someone who has not been vaccinated; the risk only pertains to one who iscontagious. In order to assess the level of risk, chances of infection and deterioration should be taken into account. In addition, we should examine the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing transmission, illness and death.


For the purpose of risk assessment, we have adapted a particularly stringent scenario: a family living in an area hit hard by anepidemic (London, April 2020), and an individual who is the only one to have been vaccinated. Furthermore, the efficacy of the vaccine is based on the Pfizer report (95%), not on the Ministry of Health report (98.9%). This model takes into account the probability of infection, risk for deterioration and vaccine protection.





Based on an epidemiological analysis and stringent conditions and data regarding the vaccine, it appears that for a person who has been vaccinated, it no longer matters whether the people around her or him have been vaccinated. The risk of dying fromCovid-19 has become negligible—lower than the risk of ordinary seasonal flu. Considering how insignificant the risk from an unvaccinated person is vis-à-vis those who are vaccinated, there is clearly no epidemiological reason to suspend one’s civil rights in order to protect the health of the general public. Furthermore, the separation of the vaccinated population from the unvaccinated is not any more necessary than it would be in the case of any other respiratory virus.



Based on the Oxford QCovid Risk Calculator, used to calculate the risk of death, according to age, ethnicity, locale, gender and existing medical conditions, during 90 days from the peak of the 2020 Covid-19 epidemic in the UK

Main causes of death in Israel, Global Health Observatory, World Health Organization (WHO)

Efficacy of the Vaccine (Hebrew), Ministry of Health, updated to February 13, 2021

“Pfizer and BionTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of Covid-19 Vaccine Candidate”, Press Release, November 18, 2020


*The analysis refers only to men, because of the greater tendency of men to suffer from Covid-19. A more detailed document, which goes more deeply into the calculations, is available on our website.